In partnership with
Hormuz stays shut, and oil keeps writing the inflation story
Brent held at $88.50 a barrel in Asian trade after a 6% gain last week, while US crude slipped 0.3% to $82.12 following a 5.4% weekly advance. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted, and peace talks over the Iran conflict have gone nowhere. Iran called on Washington to accept defeat on Saturday; Trump told Americans to expect higher pump prices for as long as the fighting continues.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver framed the base case as a $70–$100 range — Iran preventing a slide lower, Washington leaning against anything above $100. The tail risk is the one that matters: no durable deal, Middle East flows running 10–15% below normal, and reserves draining into a supply squeeze.
Equities are shrugging for now. MSCI's Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index was flat, the Nikkei rose 0.4%, and Australian resource names slipped 0.3%. S&P 500 futures added 0.1% after last week's record close.
Weak US data kills the hike trade — and the dollar with it
The September hike is being priced out. After July retail sales posted their first decline in nine months and consumer sentiment fell harder than forecast, futures now put roughly a 69% probability on the Fed staying put next month, leaving hike odds near 30%.
The dollar is taking the hit. A Bloomberg gauge of the greenback slipped 0.2% for a third consecutive session, hovering near levels last seen in May, while MSCI's emerging-market currency index headed for an all-time high close on strength in the Taiwan dollar and Thai baht. The euro traded at $1.1578, just under a two-month peak; the dollar eased to 159.15 yen. Two-year Treasury yields fell to 4.156% after touching a seven-week low, with tens at 4.684%. Gold sat at $4,381 an ounce.
Wednesday brings the minutes from the contentious July 28–29 meeting, where three officials dissented in favour of a hike and the committee held at 3.50–3.75%.
That lead in your CRM? Gone.
Over 3.5 billion people open WhatsApp, Instagram, or Facebook Messenger every day. Your customers are already there, asking questions and comparing options.
Wati puts your business across WhatsApp, Instagram DM, Facebook Messenger, SMS, RCS, and web chat in one AI-powered inbox.
Automations instantly respond, route conversations, and keep every interaction tracked in one place.
Meet customers where they already are, before your competitor does.
Bitcoin can't clear $64K as ETF money walks out the door
Bitcoin traded near $63,460 on Monday, up 0.7% on the day but still 2.3% lower on the week after failing at $65,400. Ethereum recovered to about $1,900, XRP clung to $1.00, and Solana held near $75. Total crypto market cap sits around $2.24 trillion, with bitcoin dominance close to 57%.
The flow picture explains the drift. US spot bitcoin ETFs bled roughly $390 million in net outflows between August 10 and 14, with Fidelity's FBTC accounting for about $153 million of that. It is a sharp reversal from the prior week's $853.5 million five-session inflow streak. Spot ether ETFs were essentially flat at $2.26 million out.
Beneath the index, dispersion is doing the work: Chainlink is up 15.7% on the week, Hyperliquid 8.7%, and Monero 4.9% — while Uniswap has shed 18.4% over seven days.
Harvard stops selling bitcoin — but still owns more gold
Harvard Management Company's Q2 13F landed with an unexpectedly loud silence. The endowment reported 3,044,612 shares of BlackRock's IBIT worth $101.4 million as of June 30 — the exact same share count as the prior quarter. The $15.6 million drop in value was price, not liquidation.
That ends a two-quarter retreat. Harvard held 6,813,612 shares in September 2025, cut 21% in Q4, then another 43% in Q1. It remains fully out of spot ether ETFs. Notably, gold now outranks bitcoin in the disclosed book: $149.5 million in IAU plus $21.7 million in GLD, versus $101.4 million in IBIT.
Elsewhere in the filings: Abu Dhabi's Mubadala and ADIC held a combined $764 million in IBIT unchanged, JPMorgan lifted its position to about 10.4 million shares, Morgan Stanley trimmed 4.5%, and Tudor Investment added. IBIT's 13F holder list has grown to roughly 1,500 institutions.
Washington's crypto week begins as CLARITY odds collapse
Wednesday brings the crypto industry to the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, Gemini, Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket, a16z, Chainlink and Paradigm are expected, alongside SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Mike Selig. Trump is expected to attend, though the White House has not published a formal list. It functions as a warm-up for the CFTC's inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on Thursday.
The timing is awkward. Legislative odds on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act have collapsed, with trackers now putting passage somewhere between 10% and 19%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture before recess; the motion ripens at 2:15 p.m. on September 15. Clearing it requires 60 votes — Republicans cannot get there without Democrats.
Meanwhile the SEC abruptly pulled its own Friday vote on capital-raising exemptions for crypto startups, citing a scheduling issue, with no new date announced.
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.