The July inflation report came in exactly as forecast: headline CPI rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% year-over-year, easing from June's 3.5%, while core slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%. After July's shock payrolls report — the economy shed 23,000 jobs, with May and June revised down by a combined 103,000 — an in-line print was enough to calm nerves about a September rate hike without settling the debate. Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn puts September odds at roughly 60/40 in favor of no move over a quarter-point hike.

Treasury yields fell and rate-sensitive assets caught a modest bid, but the reaction was muted. CF Benchmarks' Gabe Selby notes bitcoin has historically rallied over 3% on average when inflation surprises to the downside — an in-line report removes tail risk but creates no momentum. "It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst," he said.

The calendar now does the heavy lifting: July PPI hits this morning at 8:30 ET, Jackson Hole follows later this month, and the September 4 jobs report plus the September 11 CPI print will decide whether the Fed's pause survives.

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $64,000 after the CPI release before drifting back toward $63,500 on Thursday, down nearly 2% on the week and hovering just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,735 that technicians consider the line between consolidation and breakdown. Support below sits at $62,000 and the broader $57,800–$60,000 zone; bulls need a clean move through $64,400 to reopen the path toward $65,800–$66,000.

Derivatives tell the real story. DWF Labs' Andrei Grachev points out that on the end-August expiry, downside protection near $60,000 still costs more than equivalent upside exposure at $70,000 — a defensive skew that has persisted through quiet data, even as traders quietly rebuild $70K call positions. CoinGlass counted roughly $174 million in liquidations over 24 hours into the print, split almost evenly between longs and shorts: a positioning flush, not a directional rout.

Spot demand isn't forcing the issue either. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in just $7.8 million on Wednesday, led by BlackRock's IBIT, after a similarly thin $4.9 million Tuesday. Until real size returns, bitcoin trades the macro tape.

XRP pierced $1 this week for the first time since November 2024, printing an intraday low near $0.99 before buyers stepped in, and it has been pinned to the level since. The break coincided with an exploit of the Coreum bridge that drained roughly 200,000 XRP, and some $2.39 billion in volume flooded in at the lows — a genuine flush, not a slow bleed.

The uncomfortable part is the disconnect between price and network. XRP Ledger activity hit 1.39 million transactions on the day of the break, but only around 301,000 were actual payments — and institutional demand has thinned, with US XRP ETF desks logging zero flows on 10 of 17 July trading days while fund assets slipped from roughly $993 million to $950 million. Price now sits below both the 50-day ($1.09) and 200-day ($1.32) moving averages.

Bears note the weekly close was the lowest in nearly two years, with $0.75 the measured downside if $1 fails cleanly. Bulls counter that a monthly DeMark buy signal just flashed — the same setup that preceded XRP's monster 2020 and 2022 rallies. One level, whole argument.

Equities took the inflation data far better than digital assets did. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday within striking distance of a record as megacap chipmakers powered the Nasdaq 100 to a one-month high, and the risk appetite spread overnight: South Korea's Kospi surged more than 4% on Thursday while Japan's Nikkei added 1.6%, putting Asia's regional gauge on track for a second day of gains.

The wobble came after hours. Cisco's earnings failed to impress, nudging Nasdaq futures lower into Thursday's session. Attention now turns to July PPI at 8:30 ET and a dense earnings slate headlined by Applied Materials — a live read on global chip-equipment demand — alongside JD.com, Brookfield and Tapestry.

Single-stock action stayed lively too: Wendy's jumped 13% on a Financial Times report that Nelson Peltz's Trian is preparing a take-private bid. The backdrop remains messy — US–Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz standoff are keeping oil elevated — but for now, equities are pricing Fed patience, not trouble.

While crypto grinds sideways, the metals are running. Gold traded around $4,420 on Wednesday, up more than 1% in 24 hours and roughly 7% in August alone, after last week delivered a 7.1% gain — its best weekly performance since January. Silver punched above $66, up over 2.5% on the day and 12% this month.

The drivers read like bitcoin's own bull case: a deteriorating labor market, a Fed nobody can handicap, and Middle East risk that refuses to resolve. Yet the safe-haven flows are going into metal rather than digital gold — worth sitting with if your thesis depends on hard-asset rotation eventually reaching BTC.

One caution flag before chasing: Bespoke Investment Group argues the August rally is starting to look stretched, and the dollar index is sitting right on the trendline that has supported its advance since January's low of 95.55. A dollar bounce from here would take some froth off. But the trend — and the macro fuel behind it — still belongs firmly to the metals.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.